Badgley Real Estate Services

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Upside Down Inventory

Definition: Where there are fewer homes available for sale than the number of homes that have gone into contract (“Pending”). This is based on a direct comparison of the “Active” inventory to the number of “Pending” contracts that have occurred in the previous 30 days.The hottest of the hot neighborhoods in our regional market have been the Green Lake/Ballard area of Seattle that encompasses Freemont, Wallingford, and other close-in neighborhoods; the University/Lake City area; and on the Eastside, it has primarily been east Bellevue. All of these neighborhoods have been upside down for available inventory for the better part of two years now.For the first time in all of the years that we have maintained our statistical compilation of the market for King and Snohomish Counties, both Southwest Snohomish County and the core Snohomish County (Everett) area have gone upside down. This occurred for the first time late January in Southwest Snohomish County, and in mid-February for the Everett area of Snohomish County.Chart SW Snohomish CtyChart Snohomish Cty- EverettThe accompanying charts provide a beautiful picture of this “upside down” market characteristic for both areas mentioned above. The dark blue line shows the “Active” inventory measured on Monday of each week, and the dark red line indicates the number of “Pending” contracts that occurred in the previous 30 days.The vertical dark lines serve to aid the eye in depicting the amount of available inventory as long as the blue line is on top. Once the red line is on top, the dark lines depict a worsening inventory situation. The greater the spread between the lines, the less the inventory – thus the upside down market.Note where these lines swapped positions on both charts in the past few weeks. The charts reflect two trends: One is a seasonal fluctuation, which is expected; and the other is the long-term loss of overall inventory.Why do we believe that this is important? The strength of the market in the core areas of our region has been pushing buyers further out in search of available housing for some time now, and this has resulted in continued erosion of the available inventory in the surrounding neighborhoods and communities.